The MNI Chicago Business Barometer Hit Highest Level in Over Three Years
Increasing to 65.7 in June from 59.4 in May, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer hit highest level in over three years. New Orders hit their highest level since May 2014 and the order Backlogs component hit its highest level since July, 1994.
Manufactured Durable Goods Report
- New Orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.1 percent in May following a 0.9 percent decrease in April. Recent softness in orders suggests the surge early this year is fading and the factory sector will slow.
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased 0.8 percent.
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up ten of the last eleven months, increased 0.2 percent. (Census Bureau)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Moved Down
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to -0.26 in May from +0.57 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from April and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in May. The index’s three month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) declined to +0.04 in May from +0.21 in April.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
US Drill Rigs Running Rose Last Week
The number of drill rigs running in the US rose by eight last week, led again by Oklahoma (up by 5), as Canadian drilling gained 11 rigs compared with the previous week.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Reports Increased June Activity
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and reports Texas factory activity increased in June according to business executives responding to the survey.
- The Production Index fell, indicating output grew but at a slower pace than in May.
- The New Orders and Growth Rate of Orders Index’s fell, also indicating a moderation in growth.
- The Shipments Index retreated after surging in May.
Perceptions of broader business conditions improved in June though the indexes were less positive than in May.
Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June Reports Improved Conditions
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June and reports improved conditions. Looking six months ahead, manufacturing executives were more optimistic in June than they were in May although the May readings were very positive.
Consumer confidence increased moderately in June following a small decline in May,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved to a nearly 16 year high. Expectations for the short-term have eased somewhat but are still upbeat. Overall, consumers anticipate the economy will continue expanding in the months ahead, but they do not see the pace of growth accelerating.”
US Raw Steel Production Retreated Last Week
US raw steel production retreated 0.6 percent last week as mills operated at an ACUR of 74.2%. In the corresponding week last year the ACUR was 75.1 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 43,000,000 tons compared to the prox 42,000,000 tons produced in the like period last year.
Automotive Outlook Symposium Forecast
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released results from its annual Automotive Outlook Symposium forecasting the nation’s economic growth will be near its long term average this year, strengthening somewhat in 2018. Inflation is expected to increase in 2017 and to hold steady in 2018. The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge lower to 4.4 percent by the end of 2017 and to remain at that rate through 2018. Light vehicle sales are predicted to decrease to 17.1 million units in 2017, down from 17.5 million units in 2016 then to 16.9 million units in 2018.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Increased
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017 according to the “third” and final estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.
What do the index numbers mean?
A zero value for the MEI has been associated with the Midwest economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; positive values with above-average growth (in standard deviation units); and negative values with below-average growth. A zero value for the relative MEI has been associated with the Midwest economy growing at a rate historically consistent with the growth of the national economy; positive values with above-average relative growth (in standard deviation units); and negative values with below-average relative growth. The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) decreased to +0.51 in May from +0.72 in April.
Congressional Budget Office Assessment of Senate Healthcare Bill
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its assessment of the Senate version of the healthcare bill. Their analysis shows a reduction in the deficit of $321 billion relative to Obamacare. They also project 22 million more people will be uninsured by 2026. What they do NOT say is that those who will not be covered will have CHOSEN to forego being forced into buying insurance they do not need or do not want. The Obama mandates will be gone. Why is it so hard to tell the truth?
The Democrats are on this like stink on shit but it is an illusion. Nancy Pelosi says “100’s of thousands of people will die.” That is just blatant bullshit and everyone who suggests that as truth, should be called out on it. It appears the senate version of a health care bill is in trouble. It is confounding that these geniuses cannot come together to fix the problem which they, in effect, have created.
Chuck Schumer is a complete idiot. I am listening to him tell we the people that the health care bill is geared toward benefiting the very wealthy. It is not true and I do not believe for one minute that Republicans would craft such a bill aimed to benefit billionaires and multi-millionaires…the mid-terms are a year away and the wealthy are certainly not looking to make their fortunes on the cost of health insurance; it is ludicrous to think so.
The Democrats have been beating that drum for 50 years. It is a blatant lie only believed by those who spew that nonsense and those who are uninformed. This tragedy in our health care system is the fault of the Democrats. They shoved Obamacare down our throats (“we have to pass it to see what’s in it…”. They spew that Republicans have had eight years to come up with a better plan…but so did the Democrats as they watched the ACA implode more and more each year since it became law.
Dick Durbin, another moron, is now on telling us how great Obamacare is that everyone realizes it. What planet are they from? I do not trust any of these guys-on either side. Again, the government screwed up our healthcare system and we the people should DEMAND that THEY fix it. What kind of crap is this with these people? They have all been elected to do a job but they only legislate as it benefits them and their buddies and that is why “draining the swamp” should be a mantra of the American people. Get rid of all the lifers and anyone who has been elected who was not a millionaire before the vote but has since become one. Drain the Swamp…
WISHING YOU ALL A VERY HEALTHY AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY. ENJOY THE WEEKEND.
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform X rollback begun Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel
Destroy ISIS X Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”