Highest Shipments Index Since December 2010 Reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September  

Supported by a sizeable increase in the index for shipments-which, at a reading of 22, is the highest shipments index since December 2010, the composite manufacturing index rose from 14 to 19, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September which reported manufacturing activity improved in September.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Reports Improvement

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey and reports an improvement in regional manufacturing conditions during the month, according to respondents. Indicators for general activity, new orders and shipments all increased, suggesting a broadening of growth.

 

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Moved Down

Led by declines in production-related indicators the CFNAI moved down to -0.31 in August from +0.03 in July.
The three month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) decreased to -0.04 in August from a neutral reading in July.

What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Reports Increased Activity

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey results and reports factory activity continued to increase in September, according to executives responding to the survey. The production index was nearly unchanged albeit fractionally lower, indicating output grew at about the same pace as in August. Other measures of current manufacturing activity indicated continued growth.

US Raw Steel Production Dropped 1.4% Last Week

US raw steel production dropped 1.4% last week as mills operated at an ACUR of 73.8%. In the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 68%. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 66,000,000 tons compared to the prox 64,000,000 tons produced in the like period last year.

The US Census Bureau August 2017 Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders

  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased 1.7 percent. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 6.8 percent July decrease.
  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, up three of the last four months, increased 0.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent July increase.
  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in August, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased 0.3 percent, following a 0.4 percent July increase.

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the second quarter according to the third and final estimate of 2nd quarter GDP made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

NFL Protests

I don’t know about you but I am tired of all this NFL bullshit. Colin Kaepernick was a piece of shit last year and remains so today. It was beneath him to take a $1 million per year salary. Talk about inequality. The rest of the knuckleheads do not even know what they are protesting. They should realize they are the entitled few who make millions playing a game and that it is the FANS who pay their totally obscene salaries.

The men and women who have served our country, our Veterans and those who gave all deserve the respect given by all patriots to the flag of our country and to the anthem which honors her. All of those who kneel or otherwise show disrespect to either the flag or the National Anthem should be rebuked and condemned and yes, were I an NFL team owner, they would be fired. These guys are famous and can use any other platform to air their grievances; by being on a newscast, by doing community work in their town, by creating foundations to help those in need or to fight the inequality which they protest, or donating a sizeable chunk of their exorbitant income to help others. What they are doing is NOT the right way to get it done.

Drain the Swamp

I tweeted the president this week that “NO ONE should be flying around on private jets but him. His (and our) employees have not earned the privilege of flying on private jets. Business class, first class or coach-fine. Save the money.” Drain the swamp, these guys are not entitled any more than you or I. They work for us.

RIP Hef

Hugh Hefner, founder of Playboy magazine, passed away Wednesday at the age of 91. I have been a reader (yes, I do read many of the articles) since I was a young boy. My cousin and I found his dad’s stash of the magazine in his house when we were pre-teens and I have been a buyer or subscriber to the magazine ever since. He changed the views of many over the years. RIP Hef…

Declaring War on N Korea

The little runt in North Korea has accused the US of declaring war on them for President Trump’s rhetoric. That’s a laugh…if we had declared war North Korea would already be dust and the world would be rid of a tyrant.

Tax Reform

The tax reform proposal was presented this week and there is good and bad within the proposal, in my view. My main issue is the continual rant by the lefties of giveaways to the rich. It is so insidious that the president has given “flexibility” to congress to create a higher tax bracket for the top 1%. Where is the fairness in that? The top earners pay 40% of the taxes in the country. If you earn $100,000.00 per year and they lower your rate from the current 39.5% to 35%, and someone else makes $1,000,000.00 per year, should not every taxpaying citizen enjoy the benefit of that tax cut? So, I am totally against that.

A $500 credit for those caring for elderly parents? That is pissing on a fire; it is not a real benefit to anyone. Get rid of that. I do not mind at all taking the mortgage interest deduction away or any of the other currently allowable deductions. They have all been created by the thieves in Washington as favors to their political donors. Screw them, eliminate ALL of these deductions, and SIMPLIFY the tax code. Accountants will not like it but the benefits to the country would be numerous.

Infrastructure  X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines)                  Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out

Individual Tax Reform                                                                    Entitlement Reform

Business Tax Reform                                                                      Education Reform  X

Healthcare Reform    X rollback begun                                    Veterans Administration Reform  X

Rebuild our Military        X                                                             Trade Reform  X

Secure our Borders (The Wall)    XX                                           Lead the world from the front  XX

Help for the poor                                                                             Drain the swamp X as we speak

Peace through unmatchable strength                                     Support Israel  X

Destroy ISIS        X                                                                             Extreme Vetting  XX

Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX                           American Jobs   XX

I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!   

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed,  or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”