Business Activity Dropped Sharply in New York State Business activity dropped sharply in New York State according to The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey results. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-nine points to -43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments also posted sharp declines. [...]
Economic Resilience Appears Improved Economic resilience appears improved boosting small business optimism at the end of 2023. The NFIB small business optimism index rose 1.3 points in December, tying with July for the highest reading of the year. Wells Fargo Consumer Price Index Rose in December The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers [...]
US Drill Rigs Running Increased from Previous Week US drill rigs running increased from the previous week in the US. There were 622 running, up two rigs from the previous week, down 157 rigs from one year ago. Meanwhile, Canadian drillers shut 60 rigs to a total of 86 running, up two rigs from one [...]
CFNAI Rose in July CFNAI rose in July, led by improvements in production-related indicators. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.12 in July from -0.33 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June, and two of the four broad categories made positive [...]
Survey Future Indexes Positive but Declined Survey future indexes positive but declined, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey results. It reports manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to firms responding to the survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive [...]
Recession Concerns Diminishing Somewhat Recession concerns diminishing somewhat suggests a Wells Fargo statement. Small business optimism bested expectations in July, notching its third consecutive improvement. The fact that small firms’ economic outlooks continue to improve despite recent macroeconomic headwinds suggests that recession concerns may be diminishing somewhat.” Wells Fargo I must disagree with this. You [...]
Highest Consumer Confidence Since July 2021 Highest consumer confidence since 2021, not since the outset of the pandemic has consumers’ assessment of the present situation been stronger than it is today. Meanwhile, amid broad improvement in labor market measures, overall consumer confidence rose to its highest level since July 2021, and expectations rose as well. The [...]
LEI Below Recession Threshold Over a Year LEI below recession threshold over a year fell again in June, down 0.7%. This marks the 15th consecutive monthly decline. Total housing starts declined sharply during June, partially reversing May’s robust gain. The drop was broad-based, with both single-family and multifamily production pulling back during the month. Business [...]
Inflation is Still High, but It Has Come Down Inflation is still high, at over two times the Fed target of 2 percent, but it has come down from 9 percent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in April, on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in March, the US Bureau [...]
First Estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 Percent The first estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 percent, but drilling into the numbers shows housing in a recession, taking transportation out of the equation leaves GDP growth in a negative position. US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week In the week ending 1/21/23, US raw [...]
