This being early December I am once again in Cabo San Lucas to re-charge for the coming year. I was reviewing a paper from the Precision Machined Products Association quarterly economic report from the Institute of Trend Research. They are forecasting (for the major industries relevant to its industry) strength through the first half of 2014 with a slower second half. That’s consistent with other forecasts, likely a mild recession into 2015 and the following recovery.

Hopefully we will benefit by electing someone in 2016 who has actually worked and held a real job, someone who knows how to create and operate a profitable business and realizes that we must make products here at home. Manufacturing requires skilled labor, skilled labor demands good compensation, people who earn good money spend it buying more products and so goes the circle. Buy American made products whenever you can.

Real Gross Domestic Product

… the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States, increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter (that is from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). There will be one more revision. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.

We seem to have experienced the second half pop everyone was hoping for. The trend reports mentioned earlier suggest that business should be preparing for, or at least be aware of, a mild slowdown in mid 2014 which would likely deepen a bit in 2015. 3.6 percent growth is closer to what we need to create prosperity through good job growth. Too bad It took five years to arrive.

History

Nelson Mandela passed away yesterday (Thursday) at the ripe old age of 95. An avowed communist, he led the way for peaceful protest and the end of apartheid in South Africa. The world mourns the loss.

Tomorrow is the infamous anniversary of the brutal attack on Pearl Harbor…..lest we forget, say a prayer and allow a moment of silence for those gallant men and women who lost their lives in that attack.

The Chicago Business Barometer

… softened to 63.0 after October’s sharp rise to a 31 month high of 65.9. November’s slight correction came amid mild declines in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs. The Barometer however, is at its highest 3 month average level in 2 years while employment is at its highest level since October 2011.

  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased 2.0 percent.
  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods, up three consecutive months increased 0.2 percent.
The Chicago fed national activity index (CFNAI)

… led by declines in production and and employment related indicators decreased to -0.18 in October from +0.18 in September. The index’s 3 month moving average (CFNAI-ma3) increased to +0.06 in October from -0.02 in September marking its first POSITIVE reading in eight months and suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. This is good news, I hope it continues.

US raw steel, production was down 0.3 percent last week as mills operated at an ACUR of 77.2 percent. In the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 70.1 percent, according to AISI (American Iron and Steel Institute). Thus far this year in aggregate, mills have operated at an ACUR of 77.2 percent.

The US economy added 203,000 jobs last month dropping the unemployment rate to 7 percent. All small step in theorist direction.

Have a great weekend, enjoy the Holiday Season.
Hug your kids and grand kids, tell them you love them.
Buy American made products.
Hire a veteran.

As always…..God Bless America