Best January for Stocks in 30 Years
The resilient US economy has fueled the best January for stocks in 30 years…banks and smaller companies that were among the market’s laggards last quarter have helped stocks, a sign investors are favoring sectors tied to the US economy. WSJ
Short Term Interest Rates Remain Unchanged
Short term interest rates remain unchanged. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve Bank chose not to raise short term interest rates. They remain at 2.25% to 2.50%
Improvements in Production-Related Indicators
Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.27 in December from +0.21 in November. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) edged up to +0.16 in December from +0.12 in November.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Reports Continued Expansion
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and reports Texas factory activity continued to expand in January according to executives responding to the survey. The production index, a key measure, rose from 7.3 to 14.5 indicating an acceleration in output growth. Perceptions of broader business conditions improved in January.
Consumer Confidence Index Decreased in January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in January following a December decline. The Present Situation Index-based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions-declined marginally. The Expectations Index-based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, labor and market conditions-decreased from 97.7 last month to 87.3 this month.
Real GDP Increased in Q3 2018
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.4 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2018 according to the “third” and final estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Research (BEA)
US Raw Steel Production
US raw steel production the week of January 26 was 1,922,000 tons as mills operated at 81.1%. in the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 73.6%
US Drill Rigs Running Increased
The number of drill rigs running in the USA increased by 9 to 1059 rigs, meanwhile Canadian drilling rose by 23 rigs to 232.
Midwest Economy Index Moved Up in December
The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) moved up slightly in December to +0.17 from +0.11 in November. Contributions to the December MEI from two of the four broad sectors of non-farm business activity and three of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states drove the increase.
Chicago Business Barometer Dropped in January
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped to 56.7 in January, down 7.1 points from December’s 63.8. Four of the five Barometer sub-components started the year lower. Notable falls in Production and New Orders contributed most to the decline.
This decline marked the fifth time in two years the Barometer has fallen on a year-over-year basis, however the Barometer continues to signal healthy business conditions, recording a 24th consecutive reading above 50.
New Home Sales Surged in November
New home sales surged 16.9% in November to a 657,000 unit pace. With higher interest rates making potential buyers hesitant, builders are offering larger discounts which is apparent in price data. Wells Fargo
US Economy Added Jobs in January
The US economy added 304,000 in January…expectations were for 165,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4%
ISM Manufacturing Report on Business for January 2019 Reports Overall Economy Grew for 117th Consecutive Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its ISM Manufacturing Report on Business for January 2019 and reports economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January and the overall economy grew for the 117th consecutive month.
The report was issued 2/1/19 by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, CPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
The January PMI registered 56.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the December reading. The New Orders Index jumped 6.9 percentage points from December, the Production Index jumped 6.4 percentage points from the December reading.
Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength supported by strong demand and output.
Exports continue to expand, but at the lowest level since Q1 of 2016. The manufacturing sector continues to expand, reversing December’s weak expansion, but inputs and prices indicate fundamental changes in supply chain constraints.
President Re-opens Government for American Safety
For the safety of Americans who travel by air, the president re-opened the government last Friday. I understand air traffic controllers were calling off work and you cannot fly the friendly skies without air traffic controllers. The losers on the left do not give a shit about the American people, they had several offers on the table from the president, most of which, if not all, were rejected before they were even read. How callous can a political party be?
I am so tired of this partisan bullshit, the idiots in Congress are hired to legislate on behalf of the American people, for the good of the country and for the good of the American people, not for their own good, for their devious agenda. The leftists are so far from reason it astonishes me. The radical left loves this. Why? Because they want to destroy the country we know and love. They have elected racists, left-wing radical idiots, radical muslims. Where does this end? How does this end? Do you think true American patriots will stand idly by and allow these morons take over our country? I am part of the III, we will NOT allow that crap to happen.
So the president has allowed three weeks for negotiation but mark my words, there will be no negotiation from the left. I hope I am wrong.
Kamala Harris Announces Presidential Ambitions
Kamala Harris for president? Yeah, right. She willingly prostituted herself to a position in politics, she continues her prostitution now as a politician. What do you think would be in store for America if, by some remote chance, she was to win? This field of Democrat presidential hopefuls are all a bunch of clowns, there is not a worthy individual in the bunch. If it weren’t so sad for our country, it would be a big joke.
… and Cory Booker, too!
Cory Booker, or Spartacus, as he fancies himself (right), has jumped into the pool of Democrat sharks seeking the oval office in 2020. All these unqualified idiots…what can I say? Make your own informed decision. In my view, not a one of them is electable, but things that used to surprise and confound me about the public’s political decisions no longer do, and that is not a good thing. Common sense folks, common sense.
Poor Howard Schultz
Poor Howard Schultz, the former CEO of Starbucks, threw his hat into the swamp of democrat presidential hopefuls this week…but as an Independent. He now knows what it feels like to be Donald Trump with arrows coming from all directions. His moved has pissed off the democrat party big-wigs and thus he will pay the consequences. Don’t mess with chuckie and nancy…
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”