LEI Suggests Economy Will Continue to Expand
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US increased 0.1 percent in October following a 0.2 percent increase in September.
The US LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests the economy will continue to expand into early 2017.”
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Increased to -0.08 in October from -0.23 in September
All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from September.
The index’s 3 month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) edged down to -0.27 in October from -0.20 in September. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
What is the National Activity Index?
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:
1) production and income
2) employment, unemployment, and hours
3) personal consumption and housing
4) sales, orders, and inventories
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.
What do the numbers mean?
When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above –0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended. When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a period of sustained increasing inflation has begun.
The Dow Industrials Reached a New High of 19,000 in Early Trading on Tuesday
They call it the Trump Trade and it has been going on since November 9 as savvy investors, businessmen and women feel the relief of getting rid of the oppression of progressivism and welcome the optimism in the Trump plan to make America great again.
….and later on Tuesday the Dow closed above 19,000 for the first time. The storm clouds of the past 8 years are beginning to dissipate.
Have you heard Chuck Schumer, the new Senate minority leader, admonishing President elect Trump by telling him that as long as he follows through with his campaign promises to blue collar America, he will have no trouble from the left. That’s funny, this man has spent his entire career trying to prevent the same legislative agenda which Mr. Trump wishes to pursue from his campaign promises.
The left is shitting their pants; they have been thoroughly whipped and beaten over the past several election cycles. Notwithstanding the miracle (???) that Obama managed to secure two terms with his leading from behind strategy, higher taxes, and more regulations agenda, continues to defy logic. But all of that is now OVER. The problem going forward will be attacks by the left attempting to sabotage what the American people have proclaimed they want done for them and their country.
Success by Trump will likely be the death knell for the progressive liberal party (they are not Kennedy Democrats-all gone) and likely the staid old Republican Party. It is time again for a government OF the people, BY the people and FOR the people. Let ‘er rip Donald. Let’s Make America Great Again!
I wish you all a very Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy your family and friends; be optimistic about your future and the future of the United States for things are going to be just fine.
THE DESOLATE WILDERNESS
Here beginneth the chronicle of those memorable circumstances of the year 1620 as recorded by Nathaniel Morton, keeper of the records of Plymouth Colony, based on the account of William Bradford, sometime governor thereof:
So they left that goodly and pleasant city of Leyden, which had been their resting place for above eleven years, but they knew that they were pilgrims and strangers here below, and looked not much on these things but lifted up their eyes to Heaven, their dearest country, where God hath prepared for them a city (Heb. XI, 16) and therein quieted their spirits.
When they came to Delfs-Haven they found the ship and all things ready, and such of their friends as could not come with them followed after them, and sundry came from Amsterdam to see them shipt, and to take their leaves of them. One night was spent with little sleep with the most, but with friendly entertainment and Christian discourse and other expressions of true Christian love.
The next day they went on board, and their friends with them, where truly doleful was the sight of that sad and mournful parting, to hear what sighs and sobs and prayers did sound amongst them; what tears did gush from every eye, and pithy speeches pierced each other’s heart, that sundry of the Dutch strangers that stood on the Key as spectators could not refrain from tears. But the tide (which stays for no man) calling them away, that were thus loathe to depart, their Reverend Pastor, falling down on his knees, and they all with him, with watery cheeks commended them with the most fervent prayers unto the Lord and His blessing; and then with mutual embraces and many tears they took their leaves of one another, which proved to be the last leave to many of them.
Being now past the vast ocean, and a sea of troubles before them in expectations, they had now no friends to welcome them, no inns to entertain or refresh them, no houses, or much less towns, to repair unto to seek for succor; and for the season it was winter, and they know the winters of the country know them to be sharp and violent, subject to cruel and fierce storms, dangerous to travel to known places, much more to search unknown coasts.
Besides, what could they see but a hideous and desolate wilderness, full of wilde beasts and wilde men? And what multitude of them there were, they knew not: for which way soever they turned their eyes (save upward to Heaven) they could have but little solace or content in respect of any outward object; for summer being ended, all things stand in appearance with a weather beaten face, and the whole country full of woods and thickets, represented a wild and savage hew.
If they looked behind them, there was a mighty ocean which they had passed, and was now as a main bar of gulph to separate them from all the civil parts of the world.
AND THE FAIR LAND
Anyone whose labors take him into the far reaches of the country, as ours lately have done, is bound to mark how the years have made the land grow fruitful.
This is indeed a big country, a rich country, in a way no array of figures can measure and so in a way past belief of those who have not seen it. Even those who journey through its Northeastern complex, into the Southern lands, across the central plains and to its Western slopes can only glimpse a measure of the bounty of America.
And a traveler cannot but be struck on his journey by the thought that this country, one day, can be even greater. America, though many know it not, is one of the underdeveloped countries of the world; what it reaches for exceeds by far what it has grasped.
So the visitor returns thankful for much of what he has seen, and, in spite of everything, an optimist about what his country might be. Yet the visitor, if he is to make an honest report, must also note the air of unease that hangs everywhere.
For the traveler, as travelers have been always, is a much questioned as questioning. And for all the abundance he sees, he finds the questions put to him ask where men may repair for succor from the troubles that beset them.
His countrymen cannot forget the savage face of war. Too often they have been asked to fight in strange and distant places, for no clear purpose they could see and for no accomplishment they can measure. Their spirits are not quieted by the thought that the good and plenty bounty that surrounds them can be destroyed in an instant by a single bomb. Yet they find no escape, for their survival and comfort now depend on unpredictable strangers in far-off corners of the globe.
How they turn from melancholy when at home they see young arrayed against old, black against white, neighbor against neighbor, so that they stand in peril of social discord. Or not despair when they see that the cities and countryside are in need of repair, yet find themselves threatened by scarcities of the resources that sustain their way of life. Or when, in the face of these challenges, they turn for leadership to men in high places-only to find those men as frail as any others.
So sometimes the traveler is asked whence will come their succor. What is to preserve their abundance, or even their civility? How can they pass on to their children a nation as strong and free as the one they inherited from their forefathers? How is their country to endure these cruel storms that beset it from without and from within?
Of course the stranger cannot quiet their spirits. For it is true that everywhere men turn their eyes today much of the world has a truly wild and savage hue. No man, if he be truthful, can say that the specter of war is banished. Nor can he say that when men or communities are put upon their own resources they are sure of solace; nor be sure that men of diverse kinds and diverse views can live peaceably together in a time of troubles.
But we can all remind ourselves that the richness of this country was not born in the resources of the earth, though they be plentiful, but in the men that took its measure. For that reminder is everywhere-in the cities, towns, farms, roads, factories, homes, hospitals, schools that spread everywhere over that wilderness.
We can remind ourselves that for all our social discord we yet remain the longest enduring society of free men governing themselves without benefit of kings or dictators. Being so, we are the marvel and the mystery of the world, for that enduring liberty is no less a blessing than the abundance of the earth.
And we might remind ourselves also, that if those men setting out to Delfs-Haven had been daunted by the troubles they saw around them, then we could not this autumn be thankful for a fair land.
These editorials have appeared annually in the Wall Street Journal since 1961