Job Market Remains Strong
The job market remains strong even in the face of trade disputes and labor strikes as US employers hired at a solid clip in October. The economy added 128,000 jobs in October, as reported by the Labor Department and job creation in September and August were revised up by a net of 95,000 jobs. The jobless rate ticked up to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent in September, a 50-year low.
Led by Declines in Production-Related Indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Fell in September
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.45 in September from +0.15 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), DECREASED TO -0.24 in September from -0.06 in August.
What is the National Activity Index?
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
Why are there three index values?
Each month, we provide a monthly index (the CFNAI), its three-month moving average, and a diffusion index. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so the monthly index’s three-month moving average, the CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth. The CFNAI Diffusion Index instead captures the degree to which a change in the monthly index is spread out among its 85 indicators, averaged over a three-month period.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
Texas Factory Activity Continued to Grow
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for October 2019 and reports Texas factory activity continued to grow, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to executives responding to the survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 9 points, suggesting a moderation of output growth in October. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in October, and demand declined. Perceptions of broader business conditions were mixed.
Consumer Confidence Index Decreased Marginally in October
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased marginally in October following a decline in September. The index now stands at 125.9. The present Situation Index-based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions-increased about 2 points. The Expectations Index-based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, declined about 2 points.
Consumers’ Assessment of Current Conditions Improved Somewhat in October.
Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased about 2 points while those saying business conditions are “bad” decreased by 1 point.
The Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates on Wednesday by .25 percent to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%.
US Drill Rigs Running Down 21 Last Week
There were 830 drill rigs running in the US last week, down 21 rigs from the prior week and down 238 rigs from the previous year. Meanwhile, Canadian drill rigs numbered 147 last week, up 4 from the prior week, down 53 rigs from the prior year.
US Raw Steel Production at ACUR 80.7%
In the week ending 10/26/19 US raw steel production was 1,866,000 tons at an ACUR of 80.7 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 79,785,000 tons compared to the prox 77,694,000 tons produced in the like period last year.
Real GDP Increased 1.9% in Q3 2019
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.9 percent in Q3 2019 according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exceeding expectations. The
“second” estimate, based on more complete source information, will be released 11/27/2019.
Midwest Economy Index Moved Down in September
The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) moved down to -0.43 in September form -0.36 in August. Contributions to the September MEI from two of the four broad sectors of non-farm business activity and two of the five Seventh Federal District states decreased from August.
Chicago Business Barometer Fell in October
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.9 points to 43.2 in October. The index slipped further into contraction with a second straight sub-50 reading. The survey points to further weakness in business activity, with the three-month moving average falling further to 46.9.
Only two of the major components saw a monthly decline, although both New Orders and Backlogs fell sharply in October.
While demand weakened significantly in October-New Orders declined to 37.0, its lowest since March 2009-Production bounced up to 46.8, although the indicator has been in contraction since July.
Order backlogs saw the largest monthly decline, dropping by 13.6 points to 33.1. the index registered below the 50-mark for a second consecutive month.
ISM Reports Economic Activity in Manufacturing Contracted in October
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) issued its October 2019 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business and reports: economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October and the overall economy grew for the 126th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM Report on Business.
The report was issued 11/01/19 by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, CPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
The October PMI registered 48.3 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the September reading. The New Orders Index rose 1.8 percentage points. The Production Index declined 1.1 percentage points. The Order Backlog Index decreased by 1 percentage point.”
Comments from the panel reflect an improvement from the prior month but sentiment remains more cautious than optimistic. October was the third consecutive month of contraction but at a slower rate than September.”
Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue.
ISIS Leader Dead
Over the past weekend United States Special Forces finally cornered Al Bagdahdi, the leader of ISIS. The creep has been on the run for five years. After months of intelligence, he was cornered in a dead-end tunnel like the rat he was, and according to military personnel at the scene, was crying and screaming like a coward before he blew himself to hell, along with three innocent children. Thank you to our military and our president for ridding the world of this vile piece of camel crap.
P&G Removing Gender Identifying Symbols
Proctor & Gamble is removing the gender identifying symbol on all menstrual products… because it is insensitive. Really??? This is where we have come? This is complete nonsense, an affront to the God-given sexuality of men and women. What are we allowing to happen in this country and around the world? It sickens me that my children and grandchildren must grow up in such a world and be subjected to this complete bullshit.
The Impeachment Charade
Just a note on the continuing impeachment charade: in my view the Democrats are throwing up a smoke screen to divert attention from the soon to be released Inspector General’s report on the shenanigans that occurred prior to and have continued since, the 2016 elections (and that is only the beginning, wait until Durham and Barr get started). I believe the walls will be tumbling down. All of this occurred because the Dems thought Hillary was going to win the election and all the corruption would be buried forever.
On Thursday the Democrat led House of Representatives took time out of their immensely busy schedules of helping the American people, to pass a resolution laying out the framework for their impeachment inquiry’s next phase, it only took them THREE years of OUR time and OUR money. This, as everyone knows is a smokescreen. These losers have ZERO chance of taking control of the Oval Office in 2020, so they resort to false accusations, false allegations, false stories, lies, innuendo and all other forms of deception to confuse and cause doubt among the American people. This impeachment bullshit will fall dead in the senate and everyone knows it, but they persist in order to keep their false narrative alive. It is such nonsense that it is sickening. I have never in my life seen such a deterioration in common decency AND it comes from those elected to legislate on our behalf.
By the way the highly vaunted “whistleblower” has been discovered to be a Democrat shill. Is there no sewer depth to which these people will not go? That this insidious, reckless behavior goes on in the GOVERNMENT of the USA is very disturbing. Imagine (actually, you cannot imagine this) what your life would become if these dishonest, self-serving bastards take control of our government.
As an American citizen, how do you want our country to move forward for you and your family:
SECURE BORDERS? OPEN BORDERS?
MORE GOVERNMENT? LESS GOVERNMENT?
A STRONG MILITARY? A WEAK MILITARY?
LESS TAXATION? MORE TAXATION?
LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATION? MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION?
FAIR TRADE AGREEMENTS? QUID PRO QUO TRADE AGREEMENTS?
PROPER CARE FOR OUR VETERANS? DON’T CARE FOR OUR VETERANS?
MERIT BASED IMMIGRATION? THE SHIT WE HAVE NOW?
RESPONSIBLE HELP FOR THE POOR? THROW MONEY AT THE PROBLEM?
TEACH AMERICAN HISTORY TO OUR CHILDREN? ERASE AMERICAN HISTORY?
RESPECT OUR FLAG? DON’T GIVE A SHIT?
SAY THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE IN SCHOOL? WHAT IS THAT?
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
“KEEP AMERICAN GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”</blockquote