Texas Manufacturing Activity Accelerated in February 2020

Texas manufacturing activity accelerated, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for February 2020, according to executives responding to the survey. The Production Index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose by 6 points, suggesting stronger output growth than in January.

Other measures of manufacturing activity pointed to continued expansion in February, though demand decelerated. Perceptions of broader business conditions were slightly more optimistic in February.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Increased in January 2020

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to -0.25 in January from -0.51 in December. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from December but only one of the four categories made a positive contribution in January. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) moved up to -0.09 in January from -0.23 in December.

What Do the Numbers Mean?
Why are there three index values?¬†Each month, we provide a monthly index (the CFNAI), its three-month moving average, and a diffusion index. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so the monthly index’s three-month moving average, the CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth. The CFNAI Diffusion Index instead captures the degree to which a change in the monthly index is spread out among its 85 indicators, averaged over a three-month period.

What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

Fifth District Survey Reports Manufacturing Activity Softened in February

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its fifth district survey of manufacturing activity and reports manufacturing activity softened in February. Shipments, new orders and employment declined from January. There was a decrease in backlog orders. Still, conditions remain positive and manufacturers were optimistic that activity would improve in the coming months.

US Drill Rigs Running Up from Prior Count

There were 791 drill rigs running in the US last week, up 1 rig from the prior count which is down 256 from the like period last year. Canadian drill rigs dropped by 11 to 255, up 32 rigs from the like period last year.

US Raw Steel Production at ACUR 81.5%

In the week ending February 22, 2020 US raw steel production was 1,901,000 net tons at an ACUR of 81.5 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 14,476,000 net tons as compared to the prox 14,311,000 net tons produced in the like period last year.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Improved

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved slightly in February, following an increase in January.

Consumers continue to view current conditions quite favorably. Consumers’ short-term expectations improved and when coupled with solid employment growth, should be enough to continue to support spending and economic growth in the near-term.” Said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.

Surge in New Home Sales in West and Midwest

Unseasonably mild weather and lower mortgage rates helped trigger a 7.9% surge in new home sales in January. Sales surged in the West and Midwest, where mild temps make a big difference this time of year. Wells Fargo

The Chicago Business Barometer Edged up 6.1 points in February, the Highest Level Since August 2019

The index moved closer to the 50-no-change-threshold, shifting the three-month avg. up to 46.7.
Among the main five indicators, Production and Supplier Deliveries showed the greatest gains.


What is going on here?

More than a dozen state legislatures have recently introduced bills that would require public schools to supply “free” (my quotes) tampons and other menstrual products in their bathrooms. California, Illinois New Hampshire and New York (bastions of liberalism, all of them) have already enacted similar legislation, and several school boards and universities have started providing the products for “free.” Wall Street Journal 2/26/20

Aside from the pure nonsense of this in any sense, we all know what the term “free” means when spoken by leftists, if not, it means we, the taxpayers, pay for said “free” items. It is bullshit. Should men demand shaving cream, razor blades, deodorant, condoms? Where will it stop with this idiocy?

Personal hygiene is just that, personal. The government has no business providing for an individuals’ personal hygiene nor the cost of it…and it should not have to. My goodness people, a little self-respect? A little personal responsibility? Wipe your own ass already.

Democratic Candidates’ Talking Points

According to Joe Biden, 150 million people have been killed by guns in the USA since 2007, that is half the population of the of the USA! They just make shit up and hope you believe…plus he has lost his mind.

Bernie Sanders has proposed erecting stores in the “hood” for Blacks and Latinos (yes, only those ethnicities) to finance the sale and distribution of marijuana so “the big corporations do not control the market.” I have never heard anything so stupid in my life; encouraging Blacks and Latinos to distribute drugs in their own neighborhoods and have the federal government pay for it, really?? This is NOT the American way, instead of gaining him votes (which is obviously his goal), those targeted by this blatant pandering should be up in arms.

COVID 19

In my view, the Coronavirus scare is overdone, by a lot. There are 60 known cases out of 300 million plus people in the USA. I believe 35,000 people died from the common flu last year. We know the media and the democrats are trying to blame this on President Trump (really, how does that happen?) in the hopes it will cause a recession and thus his demise… and it may. Global economies are very weak and the international quarantines on trade, travel etc. will eventually have a dire effect on the health of our economy…if it persists. Right now, it is all guesswork based on no solid facts.

If I had a boatload of cash I would be buying stocks, this correction may persist a bit-no one can time the market-or it may have ended today (Dow down 1200 points), but when the buyers move in, and they will, the bounce off the bottom will be dramatic, if you are already in, relax. If you are buying, you will be rewarded in the long run.

Parallel Parking Not Required to Obtain Driver’s License

Just for the lazy, you owe it to me, do nothing snowflakes:

This has apparently going on for some time but now, according to the Wall Street Journal, several states have eliminated the skill of parallel parking as being necessary to receive your driving license. How lazy can you be? If you want to have the privilege of driving a motor vehicle, you should have all the necessary skills to do so in a safe manner, or, as Clint Eastwood once said: “If you want to play lumberjack, you better learn to handle your end of the log!”

All of this crap is a part of the larger progressive scheme to neuter the American people of self-reliance, which is a prerequisite to liberty and a successful free society.

 

As an American citizen, how do you want our country to move forward for you and your family:

SECURE BORDERS? OPEN BORDERS?
MORE GOVERNMENT? LESS GOVERNMENT?
A STRONG MILITARY? A WEAK MILITARY?
LESS TAXATION? MORE TAXATION?
LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATION? MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION?
FAIR TRADE AGREEMENTS? QUID PRO QUO TRADE AGREEMENTS?
PROPER CARE FOR OUR VETERANS? DON’T CARE FOR OUR VETERANS?
MERIT BASED IMMIGRATION? THE SHIT WE HAVE NOW?
RESPONSIBLE HELP FOR THE POOR? THROW MONEY AT THE PROBLEM?
TEACH AMERICAN HISTORY TO OUR CHILDREN? ERASE AMERICAN HISTORY?
RESPECT OUR FLAG? DON’T GIVE A SHIT?
SAY THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE IN SCHOOL? WHAT IS THAT?

Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX

I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

and

“KEEP AMERICAN GREAT”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”