Texas Manufacturing Activity Maintained Strong Momentum in August

Texas manufacturing activity maintained strong momentum in August, reports the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August 2018, according to business executives responding to the survey. Perceptions of broader business conditions remained highly positive.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Declined in July

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.13 in July from +0.48 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June. The index’s three month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) moved down to +0.05 in July from +0.20 in June. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.08 in July from +0.19 in June.

What is the National Activity Index?
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

Why are there three index values?
Each month, we provide a monthly index (the CFNAI), its three-month moving average, and a diffusion index. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so the monthly index’s three-month moving average, the CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth. The CFNAI Diffusion Index instead captures the degree to which a change in the monthly index is spread out among its 85 indicators, averaged over a three-month period.

What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

Consumer Confidence Survey Reports Increases

The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Survey results and reports the index increased in August following a modest increase in July. The Present Situation Index improved while the Expectations Index also increased.

Consumer Confidence increased to its highest level since October 2000 following a modest improvement in July,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.

Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity Reports Expansion

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity and reports manufacturing activity expanded in August, according to the most recent survey. All three components; shipments, new orders and employment all increased.

US Raw Steel Production Backpedaled Last Week

US raw steel production backpedaled slightly last week, falling 0.3% as mills operated at an ACUR of 79.3%. in the corresponding week last year, mills operated at an ACUR of 75.8%. thus far this year mills have produced prox 61,000,000 tons compared to the prox 59,000,000 tons produced in the like period last year. AMM

Estimated Second Quarter GDP Increased 4.2%

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “second” estimate of second quarter GDP and reports real GDP increased at a 4.2 percent. The growth rate is 0.1 percentage point greater than the “advance” estimate. The Third and “final” estimate will be released around this time in September.

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) ticked up to +0.46 in July from +0.42 in June

Chicago Business Barometer Slipped to a Three-Month Low in August

The Chicago Business Barometer slipped to a three-month low of 63.6 in August. Firms’ operations continued to grow at a healthy pace despite decelerating for the first time in five months. A softening in Supplier Deliveries, Order Backlogs and Employment offset gains in Production and New Orders. However, the Barometer still sits 6.9% higher on the year and continues to signal robust business conditions.

Summer Business Doldrums

This is likely the result of the summer business doldrums, but it does require monitoring. I do not really see any headwinds to our economy at this point… unless the Democrats take the House in November, at which point, we are all screwed. I am dead serious about that folks.

With a leftist victory you can say goodbye to business and individual tax cuts. You can say hello to open borders, to a proliferation of sanctuary cities, to more government regulation and control, to a weakened military and so many other wrong policy initiatives. I want to vomit.

Trump Resistance Continues

I suspect all the political attacks on President Trump will not end. The Democrats just cannot get over their loss in the 2016 general election, thus their consistent efforts to de-legitimize this presidency, to obstruct and resist at every turn.

It is baffling that we have so much evidence of collusion with the Russians by the DNC and yet there is nothing being done about it. The knowledge we have of rampant corruption from the Clintons and yet, no investigations. But why?

The hate for Trump is palpable, like high humidity, it fills the air we breathe. Yes, we can all take exception to some of the things Mr. Trump says. Big deal. What are the results of his presidency to date? Are they good or bad?

The swamp creatures were against the tariffs he has imposed on our trading partners, the goal of which is to level the field of trade where the USA has been taken advantage of since the end of WWII. Now we have reached an early agreement with Mexico on NAFTA and will be inviting Canada into these talks to renegotiate NAFTA. This will be good for trade in the USA, Canada and Mexico. And yet they continue to resist.

Immigration Reform

We have a huge illegal immigration problem in our country which is affecting the citizenry in a myriad of ways; loss of jobs, criminal activity, including murder, welfare abuse and on and on.

Trump did not write the law separating children from parents at our borders, he is enforcing the laws which already exist. They blame President Trump. He will build a wall (construction has begun…the media will not tell you) on the southern border to slowdown drug traffic, human trafficking and illegal border crossings. They resist.

He wants to reform and improve our immigration laws and enforce them. He is aware of the need for, and benefits of, LEGAL immigration. It is what our nation is built upon. He is not a racist, racism lives with the left. Do not listen to the swamp creatures who politicize the issue. They are wrong.

Regulations & Rollbacks

The Democrats live to add regulation upon regulation on individuals and business. Mr. Trump has rolled back and continues to roll back countless stifling regulations placed on us and our businesses.

Congressional members on the left and right have made a living out of raising taxes on individuals and business, filling their pockets while taking your hard-earned money and the profits from our businesses. Trump successfully gave business an enormous tax cut and though he wished to do more for individuals, the obstruction from the swamp precluded that…but he is not done.

Now our economy is running at a pace not seen in some time. 4.1% growth in the 2nd quarter? They all said it couldn’t be done…but it HAS been done, with proper conservative economic policies.

Trump has created millions of new jobs, wages are rising, black and Hispanic unemployment levels are at record low levels as people get off welfare, re-join the workforce and regain their pride and self-esteem as productive contributors to our society.

Our military was decimated during previous administrations. Does that make any sense at all in the world we live in? Lead from behind? Give me a break. Trump won billions of dollars in funding which will make our military might unmatched. What better deterrent is there against foreign aggression?

Stay the Course

At times, because of all the untruthful news being reported, I question my loyalty to the president and the conservative values he espouses, but then I speak with very intelligent successful businessmen and women to seek their input. These men and women admire the president for what he has done and what he wants to do for the country, and so I remain totally supportive of this man. We must stay the course. The Democrats are leaning very far to the left, many are calling for socialism in our country. Socialism does not work, ever.

STAND UP PATRIOTS, BE COUNTED AMONG THOSE WHO FAVOR A STRONG AND PROSPEROUS AMERICA, AN AMERICA LEFT IN BETTER SHAPE FOR OUR CHILDREN, OUR GRANDCHILDREN AND THEIRS.

What have you got to lose, the president asks? Nothing. What have we got to gain? Everything.

California Bill Mandates Female Leadership

What is wrong with these liberal idiots? California lawmakers advanced a bill that REQUIRES major companies based in the state to put female directors on their boards. MY VIEW: “Hmmm, what about qualifications? Boobs? Pee sitting down? Lesbian? Transgender? Ignorant? Simply unqualified? Doesn’t matter to the left. What fucking business is it of theirs? Talk about government regulation or overreach… this is only the beginning if low information citizens continue to vote for these morons. This November election is the time to vote this garbage thinking out of our lives.”

If the bill is signed into law by downtown Gerry Brown, governor (likely), publicly traded companies will need to have one woman on their board by the end of next year and for boards of five or more directors, two or three women by the end of 2021. Firms that don’t would face financial penalties. Wall Street Journal 8/30/18

HAVE A GREAT LABOR DAY WEEKEND!

Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX

I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”